Behavioral Threat Assessment Approaches

Pathway to Violence

First mentioned by Dietz and Martell (1989) and systematically studied by Fein and Vossekuil (1998; 1999), the “pathway to violence” refers to the path along which an individual might progress in moving from communication with the target to approach. The U.S. Secret Service developed a pathway model based on their empirical research describing a route moving from ideation, to planning, to preparation, and finally to implementation.

Targeted violence is planned, not impulsive, and generally follows the steps of this model.  

According to this model, targeted violence begins with a grievance, and escalates into violent ideation, researching and planning an attack, preparing, probing and breaching, then finally attacking. 

When encountering a person who may be at risk for committing an act of targeted violence, this model guides behavioral threat assessment and management. Assessment seeks to understand: if and where is the person on the pathway to violence?

Toolkits to Support Threat Assessment Practices

The University of Nebraska Public Policy Center has developed toolkits to help support threat assessment practices. 

In one of the toolkits, they describe how some persons with a grievance will consider violence as a solution to their grievance. They might engage in:

• Making or posting comments supporting violence
• Liking or sharing social media posts that glorify violence
• Writing or drawing things with violent content
• Talking about people or groups that use violence

Of higher concern is when a person begins researching and planning violent acts. This may include:

• Searching for information about past violent events
• Spending time on web pages that promote extreme actions and violence
• Researching means to commit violence (weapons, their costs, and availability)
• Gathering information about their target 

A final step before committing a violent act is preparation. Preparation may include:

• Purchasing firearms and ammunition
• Enhanced target practice
• Acquiring a costume or other equipment to commit the violent act
• Giving things away or posting/writing a suicide letter or manifesto about their planned violence
• testing one’s approach to committing violence (e.g. seeing how close he can get to his target)

These behaviors can help assessors to identify if the person of concern is on the pathway.

Sample Behavioral Threat Assessment and Management Team Questions

For those mental health specialists engaged in a behavioral threat assessment process, here is an additional list of questions that team members can ask themselves which may help to elucidate such warning signs or other pertinent information.

1. Is the subject troubling or troubled?
2. Has the individual exhibited this behavior in the past or is it new?
3. In the case of an employee, does the organization wish to terminate or keep the subject?
4. As a first assessment, does the individual resemble an emotional threat (less likely to act) or an unemotional one (more prone to strike)?
5. What does the TAT know about this person’s mental health, substance abuse, weapons use, or criminal history?
6. What work or military history does the individual have?
7. Does the team have information about this person’s family dynamics, friends, or social support network?
8. What history does the subject have of domestic violence or stalking? Is it connected to anyone currently (e.g., family, spouse, dating relationships, employees)?
9. Does anyone have restraining orders against this person? Does the subject have one against someone else? Does the individual have a history of being a party to any civil litigation?
10. Is he or she desperate or showing signs of anger, rage, depression, or despair?
11. Do others have concerns about this person’s behavior?
12. How geographically or physically close is the subject to his or her targets?
13. What might change in the subject’s life to increase or decrease the risk of violence?
14. Could anything happen in the potential victim’s situation to alter the chance of action by the subject?
15. What does this person want? Can the team solve his or her problem? Is the subject making a demand or threat or disclosing a cause?
16. Is the person on the path from ideas to actions?
17. Does the subject seem homicidal or suicidal? Angry or depressed?
18. Is there evidence of repetition or escalation of threats or violence or boundary probing? It becomes a significant concern when a person makes multiple contacts in multiple ways.
19. Has there been a series of red flag events? Is the person’s behavior becoming more or less erratic? Staying the same or escalating? Is this escalation becoming rapidly apparent (over days or even hours)? Or, is it a slower process (weeks, months, or even years)?
20. Does he or she have the capacity to organize, plan, and prepare for violence?
21. If the threat assessment team (TAT) wrote the suspect’s name on a piece of paper and drew concentric circles outward, whose names could it write in the circles as potential victims? Spouse, children, or other family members? Supervisor or coworkers? Security officer or   investigators? An attorney who served civil papers? A police officer or detective who contacted the subject recently?
22. Has the team seen or heard evidence of target selection, planning, weapons acquisition, increased mental illness, hostile communications with one or more potential victims, or rationalization of motives?
23. Are one or more key life factors failing and, therefore, igniting the subject’s rage?
24. Does it appear more or less likely that a violent action will be directed against the target? What specific information and reasoning led to this conclusion?
25. As the TAT perceives it today, is this primarily an HR, law enforcement, security, or mental health issue? Who must work in combination with each other?

Key Points for Behavioral Threat Assessment and Management

Trust-Building

One essential point to be mindful of regarding behavioral threat assessment and management, is the importance of building a relationship with the person being assessed.  Asking or getting answers to many of the above questions can be difficult or even impossible, given the circumstances.  

Much depends on the quality of the relationship with the person being assessed, and with their family, so take time to listen, build alliances, and provide support.  Family members are typically motivated by care and concern for their loved one, even if troubled.  

When a team is involved, thought should be given to who on a team would be the best person to conduct an interview.  Mental health specialists should aim to use the assessment to help establish or strengthen the relationship with the client.   This means actively trying to build trust and the relationship and listening to the concerns and requests of the person and their family.  

Stigma Reduction

Another key point is that the behavioral threat assessment and management process can be harmful to the person by possibly stigmatizing them among their networks or community. The mental health specialist or team should take care not to reveal any unnecessary or potential damaging information to others. They should also be clear to distinguish between allegations and questions versus facts.  Even asking these questions of individuals can create self-stigma resulting in further isolation, so they should be asked only when necessary